It’s been hard to keep up with the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff trade war on Canada.
Punishing tariffs have been levied on steel, aluminum and automobiles and — critically for B.C. — softwood lumber.
“Tariffs are the top election issue for workers,” Canadian Labour Congress president Bea Bruske said. “This uncertainty really has people very, very stressed out about the future of their jobs.”
U.S. duties on softwood lumber from Canada have been a sore point between the two countries for more than 40 years. The United States argues Canadian producers have an unfair advantage because they’re subsidized by governments that sell them trees on Crown land at below market prices.
There is currently a 14.5 per cent tariff on lumber from Canada.
But as part of the tariff war, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its plans to more than double the rate to 34.5 per cent by this September.
“This is an attack on forest workers and British Columbians,” Premier David Eby said in a press release. “I know that during hard times it is often the workers who pay the price.”
The change will make Canadian lumber more expensive and could result in lost sales, mill closures and layoffs.
Labour advocates and unions are calling for the federal government to support workers affected by tariffs.
And the major parties have unveiled campaign promises aimed at addressing the crisis.
A decades-old conflict
The United States and Canada have butted heads over softwood lumber for decades. Since 2016, the two countries have been involved in litigation in proceedings called “Lumber V,” because it is the fifth iteration of the dispute.
According to Global Affairs Canada, the U.S. lumber industry alleges Canadian lumber is unfairly subsidized and “dumped” south of the border.
The B.C. government says on its website it is working with the federal government to respond to the litigation and seeking recourse from the U.S. Court of International Trade, from the World Trade Organization and under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
About 65 per cent of B.C.’s softwood lumber production is sold to U.S. buyers, according to the BC Lumber Trade Council.
Tariff threats earlier this year played a role in job losses across B.C., industry experts told The Tyee. They expect higher rates to put more jobs in jeopardy.
The United Steelworkers union represents about 14,000 forestry workers across Canada. Wood Council chair Jeff Bromley said it’s still not clear what the tariffs will mean for members.
He said a strong Canadian dollar and high demand for lumber could help the industry absorb the cost of duties. But markets have been volatile as U.S. trade policy changes quickly.
“There very well could be a recession in the works,” Bromley said. “If that does happen, and housing starts to decline and the demand for the [lumber] falls, that will have a massive detrimental effect on membership in the industry.”
Bromley said the federal government can support forest workers by enhancing employment insurance and funding training support for workers who need to find work in other industries.
But Bromley said the ultimate solution is a new softwood agreement.
“Getting a new softwood lumber deal can provide certainty to the industry and to my members,” he said. “They need to make it a massive priority across the country.”
He added that can only happen if the United States is also willing to co-operate.
Bruske of the Canadian Labour Congress wants the federal parties to commit to more support for workers in the face of economic uncertainty.
“Workers want to know that our social safety net, which has some gaping holes in it, is being stitched up,” she said.
Bruske said workers need investment into social programs including health care, mental health supports and pharmacare.
Tax cuts benefit only a small portion of the population, she said.
“The right approach to take is to shore up those services that workers and their families depend on.”
What the parties promise
All the major parties have pledged tax cuts for Canadians to help address the higher cost of living and to speed up employment insurance payouts.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told The Tyee the Liberals are committed to supporting workers hurt by the trade war.
“We recognize that it is just as important for us to ensure that we are providing as effective support for workers in the forestry sector as for those who work in the auto sector in Ontario,” he said.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has promised to launch a public agency to build homes on public land using Canadian lumber and mass timber.
According to Wilkinson, the plan will require Canadian forestry products and help offset the impact of U.S. duties.
“That actually could be a significant amount of wood that would be used in construction,” he said. Canadian mass timber products could be an inexpensive and effective way to build prefab homes.
Wilkinson said the federal government will have to help the lumber industry find other markets. The Liberals have pledged to spend $5 billion on new infrastructure to help Canada shift trade away from the United States.
Wilkinson said U.S. demand for Canadian lumber will continue despite tariffs.
“Americans do not produce enough lumber to be able to satisfy their own demand,” Wilkinson said. “All they are going to do is raise the price of housing.”
The Conservative Party of Canada did not respond to requests for comment.
On Monday, the New Democratic Party announced a slate of policies aimed at supporting forestry workers.
“The forest industry is taking a hit,” NDP candidate for Courtenay-Alberni Gord Johns said in a press release. “The current softwood lumber tariffs are already devastating — this will be crippling.”
The NDP says it would launch a plan to build homes, roads, bridges, transit and health facilities using Canadian materials like mass timber.
The party also promises to cap prices on staples at the grocery store and use the revenue from retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada to support workers in affected industries.
Paul Manly, Green candidate for Nanaimo-Ladysmith, says his party plans to push for Canadian retaliation against U.S. trade policy with tariffs on goods Americans need, including potash and critical minerals.
“We ship off a lot of raw resources from our country, and we can maximize the income from those resources,” he said.
He added his party wants to encourage companies to process lumber into other wood products in Canada.
