The signs are popping up in ridings all around Metro Vancouver and the Island: “BC votes NDP to stop Conservatives.” They are a visible reminder of the uphill challenge federal New Democrats are facing in the April 28 federal election, as collapsing polling numbers spook voters into second-guessing NDP candidates across the province.
The party is trying furiously to combat that narrative, on doorsteps reminding voters in B.C.’s 13 NDP ridings that if they have an incumbent New Democrat MP on the ballot, the best bet to block a Conservative win is to stay loyal to the party.
It’s a message leader Jagmeet Singh has brought to Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver voters over the last several days, at times very bluntly.
“I'm going to specifically talk to you right now,” Singh said in Vancouver on Tuesday, addressing British Columbia voters at a press conference.
“Here in B.C., you have an incredibly important role to play in this election. You can make the difference between Mark Carney getting a super majority or sending enough New Democrats to Ottawa so we can fight to defend the things you care about."
In Nanaimo a day earlier Singh said: "If you want to stop Conservatives, the best way to stop Conservatives on Vancouver Island is by voting New Democrat.”
At risk are the NDP’s five seats in Metro Vancouver, two seats in rural B.C. and six seats on the Island. Conservative and Liberal strategists are chomping at the bit to make gains in those areas at the expense of the NDP.
If enough NDP voters bleed away to vote Liberal, it could split the vote in the ridings and allow the Conservatives an easy path to victory (though, the Conservatives insist they’ll have no problem winning several of those ridings on their own merits anyway).
Singh has adjusted his message in recent days to presuppose the Liberals will form the next government — based on polling. But he’s also asking voters to reject drawing conclusions about his party from the same polling data, which would appear to show in most of B.C.’s 43 ridings the New Democrats are out of contention.
It’s a tough message to thread.
But Singh and local New Democrat candidates are hoping to redirect the anyone-but-the-Conservatives-sentiment back toward their benefit, to stay in contention.
Social media is currently awash in seat projections based on national polling that in many cases extrapolates outcomes for individual ridings based on limited local data, and without taking into account the effect of recognizable and trusted incumbents.
That means there’s still confidence at NDP HQ about Jenny Kwan in Vancouver East, Don Davies in Vancouver-Kingsway and Peter Julian in New Westminster-Burnaby. Arguably, they are the NDP’s three strongest seats. If they fall on election night, there may not be much of a party left in the House of Commons anyway.
It doesn’t help the NDP that at this crucial moment, some of its longtime allies are looking the other way.
Former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt endorsed Liberal Leader Mark Carney in a recent op-ed, pointing to his experience in the financial sector. Harcourt’s call to support incumbent NDP MPs (and only incumbents) was tacked on like an afterthought in one sentence near the bottom of his piece.
Current BC NDP Premier David Eby has loaned some support to incumbent New Democrats, while at the same time holding a public event with Liberal Leader Mark Carney at the legislature and leaving little doubt he’d prefer Carney to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as prime minister.
New Democrats say they still see encouraging markers — more signs than ever before out on lawns in certain ridings, a robust roster of volunteers and good take-up at the door once they explain the argument of staying with the party.
Still, in the final few days of the campaign, there’s little doubt: It’s Hail Mary time for the NDP in British Columbia.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 17 years covering B.C. politics, now reporting for CHEK 蜜桃视频app and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on CBC Radio.
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